The Patriots hung on to beat the Jets in an AFC East clash. The Athletic's team of experts and insiders broke down all the action.
Zack Rosenblatt, Chad Graff and The Athletic NFL Staff
September 25, 2023 at 8:46 AM EDT
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26 New Updates
Terrible start in fantasy scoring for Jets RB Breece Hall & Dalvin Cook
Jets running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook combined for a total of 1.1 PPR points against the Dallas Cowboys last week and today isn’t going much better so far. Nearing the end of the first quarter, Cook has two carries for two yards, while Hall had zero yards on four carries.
That’s a total of 0.2 PPR points and continues what has been a nightmare scenario for this duo that fantasy managers had much higher expectations in before the Aaron Rodgers injury.
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Jets succeed when they go to Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
The Jets are going to RB Breece Hall and WR Garrett Wilson early, and that certainly makes sense.
Hall and Wilson entered the week having combined to average 8.8 yards per intended touch this season (target or rush). On all other plays excluding sacks (when they theoretically could have been the target), the Jets have averaged 4.4 yards per play, which would rank 29th in the NFL.
Patriots are daring Zach Wilson to beat them
A few drives in, Bill Belichick’s plan for the Patriots’ defense has become clear. A coach well known for taking away what an opponent does best is daring the Jets to win through the passing game.
In a league that’s embracing two-high safeties, Belichick is relying on one deep player against the Jets today, clearly not concerned about Zach Wilson hitting deep passes over them. Belichick has played very little base defense (with only four defensive backs) this season, but has switched to embrace that formation today. They’re loading the box to stop the run and daring the Jets to win with their passing game.
Three drives in, the Jets have three punts. They’ve run 12 plays and gained 11 yards.
Jets starting slow once again
Despite gaining a first down on their opening drive, the Jets are averaging less than a yard per play so far today (0.6).
It continues a trend of slow starts as New York is averaging 2.3 yards per play in the first quarter this season, 31st in the NFL.
Jets will have to beat New England through the air
No surprise, but the Patriots are daring the Jets to beat them through the air. Bill Belichick's defense is playing with a single high safety and three linebackers. They're crowding the line of scrimmage to take away the Jets' running game.
And they're doing it so far. New England forces another New York punt as Zach Wilson is sacked by Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise Jr
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Patriots offense aggressive early, takes first lead of season
Bill Belichick has coached in some of the most memorable weather games in NFL history and knows that getting ahead of the weather can be key to success.
This may be why Belichick called for passes on four of the Patriots' first six offensive plays, as the weather is much better now than it may be later on. It was successful enough to lead New England to a field goal to go up 3-0 with 10:41 left in the first quarter and may press the Jets to adopt a similar approach.
This is the Patriots' first lead of the season.
No rain yet, but sky looks ominous
The rain has yet to begin at MetLife Stadium, but cloudy skies loom.
Patriots seeking 15th straight win vs. Jets
The Patriots enter the day riding a 14-game win streak against the Jets, the second-longest active win streak by one team over another in the NFL (Chiefs won 15 straight vs. Broncos). A win Sunday would match KC and tie the franchise record for consecutive wins over a single team (15 vs. Bills from 2003-11). The NFL record is 20 straight by the Dolphins over Buffalo from 1970-79.
The Jets last beat New England in Week 16 of the 2015 season. At that time, Robert Saleh was the linebackers coach for the Jaguars and Zach Wilson was a sophomore at Corner Canyon High School in Utah.
Rain impacting the betting lines in Patriots-Jets
It looks like the inclement weather at MetLife Stadium is impacting the betting lines of the Patriots-Jets game, as the over/under in total points for this matchup is 35.5, per BetMGM.
That is the lowest over/under in total points on the Week 3 board, as no other game is below 40 (the closest is the Saints-Packers at 41.5 points).
Don’t sit Patriots TE Hunter Henry in fantasy due to rain
Some fantasy managers are thinking of sitting Patriots tight end Hunter Henry due to the rainy conditions in this contest. That would not be a good move if Henry’s track record is an indicator, as per TruMedia Henry has scored a touchdown in three of the four games he has played in where it was raining at kickoff.
Henry has been a go-to end zone candidate for the Patriots this season and when that is added to his track record and the dearth of quality TE prospects this week, it makes him a start candidate.
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Top NFL Week 3 storylines we're watching on Sunday
The 2023 season is still young, but Week 3 feels like a tipping point for some around the NFL. Nine teams — three of which made the playoffs last year in the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings — hope to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start this week. Just six teams since 1979, including one since 2002, have climbed back from 0-3 to see postseason football.
What else stands out about this week? The Athletic’s NFL writers Kalyn Kahler, Mike Sando and Jeff Howe reconvene to discuss their favorite storylines today.
GO FURTHER
NFL experts react to Week 3 storylines: Saints-Packers, Baker Mayfield’s redemption
More close games around the NFL today?
There were 12 games decided by eight points or fewer in Week 2, tied for the most one-score games in a single week in NFL regular season history.
Including the 49ers' Thursday night win over the Giants to open Week 3, 25 of the 33 games played this season (75.8%) have been within one score in the fourth quarter.
Interesting prop bets in Patriots-Jets
There are some interesting player prop wagers to be found in the Patriots-Jets game (all odds per BetMGM).
Rhamondre Stevenson is listed at an over/under of 57.5 yards in part due to rushing for 50 or fewer yards in each of the first two games this year and the Jets ranking 11th in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs this year. To be fair, Stevenson has -120 odds for the over and -110 for the under, so he is expected to top that mark.
Ezekiel Elliott also has a low over/under in rushing yards, with a 23.5-yard total, but he also has -120 odds on the over and -110 odds on the under.
The betting public has little faith in this game to have much in the way of aerial production, as Zach Wilson has an over/under of 176.5 passing yards (-115 odds on either side) while Mac Jones has a 209.5 over/under in that category (-115 odds on either side).
CBS coverage map and announcer assignments (1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET)
CBS will air six games on Sunday: Five games in the 1 p.m. ET window (including Patriots-Jets) and one game in the 4 p.m. ET window.
Here's how the coverage maps are assigned:
1 p.m. ET
- RED: Patriots at Jets (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo)
- GREEN: Broncos at Dolphins (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green)
- YELLOW: Bills at Commanders (Andrew Catalon, Tiki Barber, Matt Ryan)
- ORANGE: Titans at Browns (Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta)
- LIGHT BLUE: Colts at Ravens (Beth Mowins, James Lofton, Jay Feely)
4 p.m. ET
- DARK BLUE: Panthers at Seahawks (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis)
Patriots-Jets betting trends
For those looking to make a wager on today’s Patriots-Jets game, here are some odds trends courtesy TruMedia.
- New England is 4-0 against the spread versus the Jets since 2021. The Patriots are listed at -2.5 points for this matchup, per BetMGM.
- New England is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games when the line is between -3 and +3.
- New England is 11-4-1 against the spread in its last 16 games as a favorite.
- New York is 10-21 against the spread against division opponents since 2018.
- New York is 2-9 against the spread in September since 2020.
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Why Jets won't make major changes up front against Patriots
Last week, the New York Jets rarely put more than two hands on Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons. It was a confounding choice, especially as Parsons wreaked havoc on the Jets’ offense all afternoon and especially dominated left tackle Duane Brown and center Connor McGovern at various points throughout the game. Despite that, Parsons wasn’t doubled, and running backs only chip-blocked him — when a running back, before running a route, tries to deter a pass rusher along the way — a couple of times.
Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett’s explanation on Thursday didn’t offer much clarity as to why the Jets chose to leave the 38-year-old Brown on an island against the NFL’s most dynamic pass rusher.
GO FURTHER
Why Jets won’t make drastic offensive line changes for Patriots matchup
What’s wrong with the Patriots offense?
Before Matthew Judon took a single question at his news conference after the New England Patriots’ 24-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, the linebacker wanted to deliver his own message.
“I know it looks bad, but this isn’t a bad team,” the veteran said, attempting to soften the disappointment of the Patriots’ 0-2 record, their first such start since 2001.
This team, he said, isn’t going to close up shop because the first two games haven’t gone as planned and the playoffs now seem like an unlikely goal.
With that in mind, let’s reset after the Patriots’ second straight frustrating loss and explore where the team is, where it’s headed and what to expect against the Jets in New York.
GO FURTHER
What’s wrong with the Patriots offense? 10 thoughts on their 0-2 start
Jets inactives vs. Patriots: Mekhi Becton in line to start at left tackle
USA Today Sports
Jets inactives today:
- RB Israel Abanikanda
- WR Jason Brownlee
- OL Wes Schweitzer
- LB Zaire Barnes
- CB Bryce Hall
- S Tony Adams
None of these inactives are surprising — but the bigger surprise is the offensive line the Jets are rolling with this week. Two days ago, Jets coach Robert Saleh said he was confident that left tackle Duane Brown would play against the Patriots and that it would be “irresponsible” to play Mekhi Becton at left tackle.
Well, it seems Saleh wasn’t being entirely truthful. Saturday, the Jets placed Brown on injured reserve and as it turns out — it was the plan to play Becton at left tackle all along, a team source told The Athletic. The Jets’ plan all week was to start Becton at left tackle, to move Alijah Vera-Tucker from right guard to right tackle and to start veteran Wes Schweitzer at right guard. After Schweitzer suffered a concussion during practice this week, that changed plans slightly — and instead the Jets inserted rookie Joe Tippmann in at right guard.
The Jets offensive line struggled against the Cowboys last week and it won’t get much easier against a talented Patriots pass rush on Sunday, led by Matthew Judon and Josh Uche.
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